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The Limits of Safety
Ebook Download The Limits of Safety
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Review
"Winner of the 1993 Best Book Award, Science, Technology, and Environmental Studies Section of the American Political Science Association""An extraordinary book.... Normal accidents theory and high reliability theory took the theory of accidents out of the hands of economists and engineers and put it into the hands of organization theorists; Sagan has brought that theory of accidents much closer to maturity."---Charles Perrow, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management"Scott Sagan's book is nothing less than a tour de force.... It is by far the most carefully researched and painstaking study of nuclear weapons safety ever written."---Bruce G. Blair, Security Studies"Sagan's stories also drive a wooden stake through the heart of rational choice nuclear deterrence theory. This book will make you scared ... will make you hold your children a little tighter at the end of the day."---Lee Clarke, Sociological Forum"Sagan shows, both explicitly for nuclear weapons and implicitly for intellectual systems, that neither learning nor disasters are essentially matters of improving O-rings, safety procedures, or t-tests, as participants within those systems would like to believe. The primary adaptive action is offstage--in the background framework itself. And at that level, through sheer volume of its data, Sagan's book will shape the way that policymakers and we (with a little less confidence) understand the nuclear world." (Contemporary Sociology)"Grounded in original research in U.S. national security archives, [Limits of Safety] reveals a disturbing history of near-catastrophes in the handling of nuclear weapons and bombers. . . . This book is a significant contribution to . . . international security studies, organizational theory, and risk analysis." (American Political Science Review)"Important and refreshing . . . ranges from the general theory of accidents to how-to-do-it suggestions for any nation's nuclear planners. It is a skilful blending of social, physical, organizational and military science and is highly recommended to readers in all four fields."--David L. Sills, Nature
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From the Back Cover
"Important and refreshing . . . ranges from the general theory of accidents to how-to-do-it suggestions for any nation's nuclear planners. It is a skilful blending of social, physical, organizational and military science and is highly recommended to readers in all four fields."--David L. Sills, Nature
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Product details
Series: Princeton Studies in International History and Politics (Book 53)
Paperback: 302 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press; 1 edition (January 9, 1995)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0691021015
ISBN-13: 978-0691021010
Product Dimensions:
6 x 0.8 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.3 out of 5 stars
8 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#413,819 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Normal accident theory versus high reliability theory for nuclear weapons.We're just lucky there has not been a major disaster. The military nottelling their civilian masters what they are doing short circuits any hopeof them being an HRO.
This book is well researched and well written. Sagan uses the experiences of the nuclear weapons program to compare and contrast high reliability and normal accidents theory. He goes into depth reviewing organizational behavior during the Cuban missle crisis and the 1968 Thule bomber accident. He gives a good overview of each theory and what each theory would expect to predict regarding nuclear weapons systems. Sagan goes through a good deal of effort obtaining information through freedom of information act requests, interviews with key participants, and review of congressional testimony. Reading the title of the book - "The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons" - would suggest that this book is about organizational issues of safety and accidents of our nuclear weapons system rather than a technical tour de force of nuclear weapons. If the title is not enough, the table of contents is a dead give away of the book's content. The book is important because its findings speak to the reliability of other highly complex systems such as off shore oil rigs, nuclear reactors, chemical plants, etc. I highly recommend it.
Scott Sagan examines the safety of the US nuclear weapons command organisations employing two opposing theoretical lines of thought: the so-called high reliability school and the normal accident school.High reliability theory holds that accidents can be prevented through good organisational design, that safety is the priority organisational objective, that redundancy enhances safety, and that trial-and-error learning from near-misses can be effective. The contrasting perspective is that of normal accident theory in which the author combines Charles Perrow's system accident theory with theories of bounded rationality, specifically the garbage can theory of organisational behaviour by Cohen, March and Olsen. This view holds that accidents are inevitable in complex and tightly coupled systems, that safety is only one of a number of competing objectives, that redundancy increases the complexity and opaqueness of the system and thereby may compromise safety (indeed the provocative view that redundancy may even cause accidents) and that political infighting is a serious barrier to organisational learning.After having laid out the propositions and assumptions of these competing theories, the books addresses the basic question of which of the two theories is more accurate drawing from analysis of the Cuban missile crisis, the B52 Thule bomber crash, the performance of US missile warning systems, and others. This selection of case studies is a tough test for normal accident theory. One would expect that the all-pervasive and dreadful consequences of an accidental nuclear war would make nuclear weapons safety a first priority at all levels of all involved organisations. The reader is left un-reassured of this. Scott Sagan provides numerous examples of political infighting, of organised cover-up, of normalisation of errors, of reinterpretation of failure as success, and of conflicts over parochial interests which are serious barriers to organisation learning. This is unpleasant reading, not the least because Sagan's account is limited to US experience only.The implications of the issues raised in this book go far beyond nuclear weapons safety. Arguments are carefully reasoned, conclusions balanced, the style of writing clear, yet all details appear meticulously researched. 5 stars.
This important and informative book by Dr. Sagan should be must reading for all U.S. policymakers, the leadership of other nuclear nations and those aspiring to be so. His arugments about the dangers involved in trying to prevent accidents with nuclear weapons is eye-opening and gives one reason for concern. New nuclear nations lack the technical infrastructure enjoyed by the West and Russia. This increases the risk of the unintended use of nuclear weapons. The clear message of the book is that we must move more forcefully in reducing the nuclear threat in all its diemsnions.This ia a must read for all Christians concerned peacemaking that goes beyond mere sentiment.
Sagan examines the safety record of the Strategic Air Command, the organization responsible for US land- and air-based nuclear weapons, as a way to contrast two different theories about how organizations that deal with high-risk technologies avoid accidents. The more optimistic theory is known as the High Reliability theory: it holds that organizations can hope to prevent all accidents through a strong organizational emphasis on safety; redundancy (in both the technological and human senses); and a commitment to organizational learning. The pessimistic theory is known as the Normal Accidents theory: it holds that organizations are driven by internal politics, that greater levels of redundancy can actually cause accidents, and that what Sagan calls "tight coupling" between processes can cause small mishaps to rapidly escalate into major disasters. The book is well-written and about as riveting as a book on this topic can be, and I learned a lot about US nuclear weapons history. (It's amazing we survived the Cold War.) Sagan is considerably hampered in his choice of topic - you have to assume that more skeletons are hiding in the military's top-secret closet - and as Sagan admits, it is difficult to draw any conclusions regarding safety from near-accidents. (Is a near accident evidence that redundancy in the system works as designed, or is it evidence that, under slightly different circumstances, a major disaster could have happened? Sagan favors the latter interpretation.) Thought-provoking.
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